STAT 165
Forecasting
Forecasting has been used to predict elections, climate change, and the spread of COVID-19. Poor forecasts led to the 2008 financial crisis. In our daily lives, good forecasting ability can help us plan our work, be on time to events, and make informed career decisions. This practically-oriented class will provide students with tools to make good forecasts, including Fermi estimates, calibration training, base rates, scope sensitivity, and power laws.
Topics
- Discuss several historical instances of successful and unsuccessful forecasts. Practice making forecasts about our own lives, about current events, and about scientific progress
- Identify well-defined versus poorly-defined forecasting questions. Formulate questions that are relevant to their own life or work. Provide forecasts that are well-calibrated. Utilize a variety of forecasting tools, such as base rates, to improve their forecasts. Use forecasts to inform decisions. Understand how forecasts evolve across time in response to new information. Understand common forecasting pitfalls, such as improper independence assumptions, and how to identify and guard against them. Work in teams to improve forecasts. Utilize and filter data across a variety of sources to inform their forecasts.
Official catalogue course objectives and student learning outcomes
Sources
- Course catalogue ↗2026-2027