Uncertainty and Risk Modeling

9 units · Undergraduate

Intermittent: 9 units This course takes the perspective of the consultant whose job is to analyze existing or potential business processes and provide recommendations for managerial decision-making. Recognizing that most businesses are subject to high levels of variability, risk and uncertainty, it will adopt a stochastic approach to characterize the behavior of business systems and processes, and explore the effects of alternative decisions in this context. Two modeling methodologies will be covered: (i) stochastic modeling, and (ii) stochastic simulation. Examples are drawn from different managerial domains, such as supply chain management, risk management, marketing, and project management. The lectures, homework assignments, exam and term project will focus on modeling, computational, and analytical skills. Computational implementations will be done in Excel using the @Risk add-in (during the first half of the course to build simple simulation models) and the Arena software (during the second half of the course to build more complex models based on discrete-event simulation). Prerequisites: 36-225 or 70-207 or 36-220 or 36-207 or 36-201 or 36-200