The Rise of Autocracies

3 Credits · Level: Graduate

Despite the optimism of modernization theory and the “third wave” of democratization, about 40% of the world’s countries are autocracies. Moreover, Freedom House in its 2017 report found that global political rights and civil liberties have declined for 11 consecutive years—the longest downward slide since the watchdog organization began measuring these trends over forty years ago. The pervasiveness and persistence of autocratic government underscores the importance of better understanding the political dynamics at play in these regimes. Why have these regimes remained so resilient? What affects the stability of these regimes? What are the implications of their rise in number and influence? How can the West encourage more democratic governance? Until recently, our thinking about autocracies—how they govern and behave—has not included notions of adaptation or progress. Our perceptions have remained anchored by vivid anecdotes and mental images of history’s most infamous and eccentric leaders. When we hear the word, “dictator,” our minds tend to default to the Joseph Stalins, the Idi Amins, and the Mao Zedongs of the world. The leaders of this era seized power violently, ruled through the use of mass arrests, firing squads and other forms of brutal intimidation, and faced little opposition from those they ruled. But are these conceptions valid and useful models for understanding 21st century autocracies? This course will address these issues. We will take an in-depth look at: how we can disaggregate autocracies and how differences in "type" affect regime behavior; the strategies authoritarian leaders use to stay in power; the consequences of authoritarianism for outcomes such as economic growth and human development; and factors that affect the democratization of these regimes. We will also analyze how a widespread resurgence of authoritarianism would affect global governance and the ability of the US to achieve its interests abroad. We draw both on theories of politics in authoritarian regimes as well as in-depth discussions of the politics of some of the world’s most consequential regimes, including Russia, China, North Korea, Turkey, and Iran.