Scenarios and Strategy

1.5 Credits · Level: Graduate

Policy makers must continually grapple with uncertainty about the future and face bad policy options in constructing national security strategies. President Lyndon Johnson chose to escalate the war in Viet Nam in early 1965. George W. Bush ordered the invasion of Iraq in 2003. Both had seasoned advisors urging action. Arguably, in both cases presidential decisions had disastrous consequences for US interests. In both cases there were advisors urging caution— Vice President Hubert Humphrey in the case of Johnson and Secretary of State Colin Powell in the case of Bush. Both men were sidelined. What then do decision makers need before taking momentous decisions? One answer offered by James Steinberg, who held senior policy positions in government, and Francis J. Gavin, a respected academic, is that “what policy makers crave is help imagining alternative scenarios and multiple outlooks, while developing strategies to mitigate the downside risks and maximize upside benefits as they jump into an unknowable future.” This course is designed to address this “craving.” It is intended to be practical and “hands on” as well as to expose students to best practices on scenario building. (Note: the use of scenarios was pioneered by Royal Dutch Shell in the 1970s and since then have been utilized by governments and businesses to think rigorously about possible future contingencies.) The class will be divided into teams of two to four students with each team charged with preparing four scenarios either on a given country’s future (e.g. China in 2026) or on the potential consequences of a policy decision (e.g. bombing Iran). Teams and topics will be selected in the first class based on student interests and expertise and on pressing issues on the policy agenda in the fall of 2023. Students will be introduced to the methodology of scenario building and will have their scenarios subjected to peer and expert review. They will be asked to make policy recommendations based on their scenarios either to limit bad outcomes or maximize potential positive opportunities. Professor Yost has taught in the MSFS program off and on since the 1990s. He has focused, in his courses, on Sino-US relations and on intelligence community support to policy making. He served as director of the Strategic Futures Group on the National Intelligence Council from 2009-2013.