The Future of Russia

3 Credits · Level: Graduate, Undergraduate

The Future of Russia: The war in Ukraine has already altered Russia’s future for decades to come. However the war ends (and the end is not yet in sight), it will leave a Russia that is poorer, more backward, and isolated than it was on the eve of the Russian invasion. The damage to Russia will come from three main sources: the long-term impact of international sanctions, the return of the climate-change agenda, and the likely political upheavals as the Putin era comes to an end. For Putin’s eventual successors, a great reckoning lies ahead. The Long-Term Impact of International Sanctions: The tidal wave of sanctions that has hit Russia since the onset of the invasion will take a long time to unwind. Russia has been cut off from the international flow of finance; its exports of commodities will be less profitable; and the revenues of the Russian government will be lastingly reduced. The impact of sanctions varies from sector to sector, but overall they will cause a steady drag on Russia’s capacity to invest, to innovate, and to provide for its citizens. China beckons, but it is not a solution. The Return of Climate Change to the International Agenda: Of all the countries that stand to be affected by climate change, Russia is at the top of the list. Russia is one of the most dependent on the export of hydrocarbons. One-third of its territory lies north of the Arctic Circle, and its Arctic coastline stretches for 24,000 kilometers, much of it consisting of permafrost. Its forests, vulnerable to disease, drought, and fire, are the world’s largest, and account for over half of Russian territory and one-fifth of the world’s forested area. And as the world’s fourth-largest emitter of CO2 and many harmful pollutants, Russia is both one of the chief causes and victims of global warming. The Coming Political Succession: By the early 2030’s -- if not sooner -- Vladimir Putin will likely leave the political stage, closing a reign that by that time will have lasted longer than Stalin’s. The succession is unlikely to be smooth. Putin created a regime in which most of the institutional foundations of government have been systematically weakened; civil society has been reduced to impotence, and no viable mechanism remains for making democratic choices. The result is likely to be a chaotic contest among competing clans, chief among which will be the various security services, which are perennially at war with each other. The Russian population is likely to be confined once again to a spectator role, punctuated only by occasional outbursts of protest that will fail to generate meaningful change. What, then, will be the future of Russia, if the coming era brings economic stagnation, climate-induced stress, and political instability? Or is this bleak future inevitable? These are the subjects of the seminar.