Modeling Complexity: Intl Sec

3 Credits · Level: Graduate, Juris Doctor

This course provides an introduction to modeling complexity and system dynamics in international security. We begin with an introduction to complex adaptive systems: interconnected networks of diverse actors whose independent actions as they respond to each other and their environment produce overarching effects that may undermine those actors’ goals and can be hard to predict. We see such systems at play in global trade, migration, intractable and “unexpected” military conflicts, the rise of social movements, and many more areas of research and practice. In this course, we will become mindful of how system features and complexity shape both international security and the effectiveness of policy responses to security challenges. We will explore how differences between people’s mental models of security challenges—and the accuracy of those models—result in policy disagreements and affect the success of policy implementation. We will apply formal modeling tools, including computer-aided causal loop diagramming and agent-based modeling, to illustrate key concepts in system dynamics and complexity. Participants will build a formal model of an international security challenge of their choice (with instructor approval), conducting initial verification and validation of their model and extracting provisional policy recommendations from the results. Students will practice making their modeling assumptions transparent and improving their model through class presentations and peer review throughout the semester. Students also will practice presenting model-based policy recommendations in “traditional” vehicles such as a memo or short formal briefing. The course includes instruction in using the NetLogo computer language; no previous experience in programming or modeling is required.