Who Will Rule the 21st Century

3 Credits · Level: Graduate

In the late 1980s, as U.S. GDP growth slowed, budget deficits remained stubbornly high, and other economies outperformed that of the United States, it was frequent to hear people argue that “the Cold War is over—and Japan and Germany won.” At least those latter powers were U.S. allies. Since that time, moreover, they have encountered their own challenges—Germany in reintegrating its own eastern half and then helping establish the viability of the EU and Euro systems, Japan in dealing with prolonged economic difficulties and demographic decline. Today, we are witnessing a period of even greater American economic travails, greater national debt relative to the size of the economy, and the concern that less friendly powers—especially China and Russia—may be poised to benefit from the relative decline of the United States in specific and the West in general. The Sanders and Trump phenomena of 2016 are perhaps the most dramatic manifestations of these concerns—and the election of Donald Trump as president could be the most consequential manifestation of such anxieties since the beginning of the Cold War, or at least the end of the Vietnam War. But beyond immediate electoral changes, what do these shifting economic realities, as well as broader changes in global demographics and developments in technology, bode for the future of American power and ultimately the security of this country and its allies? This course, informed by both historical and technical perspectives, will wrestle with such broad questions about the architecture of the international power system. It will consider the relative decline of the United States and many of its major western allies that many consider to be already underway, and only likely to accelerate. It will examine the promise of the rising powers, together with the structural constraints and other impediments that they will have to face themselves as they seek greater stature, clout, and prosperity in the 21st century. It will also consider plausible war scenarios and other threats to civilization and the planet. Grading will be based in roughly equal parts on a class presentation, participation in discussions, a midterm writing assignment, and a final exam. The ultimate purpose of the course is to help students assess the emerging power structures of the 21st century and determine how they think the United States as well as other countries can best adapt to, or if possible alter, the tectonic shifts that are already evident and only likely to intensify.