Deciding Und Fire: Crisis Simu

3 Credits · Level: Graduate

Deciding Under Fire: Decision Making Models and Crisis Simulation This course examines how national security decisions are made under pressure, and why experienced officials still get them wrong. It traces the major models of decision-making — rational actor, organizational process, governmental politics, bounded rationality, and prospect theory — against the record of American statecraft from the Cuban Missile Crisis through Iraq, Afghanistan, and the ongoing competition with China. Students will also analyze how cognitive bias, bureaucratic bargaining, and incomplete intelligence degrade judgment at the highest levels of government. They will also explore the debiasing techniques and choice-architecture tools developed to counter these failures. Through an intensive National Security Council crisis simulation built around a Taiwan contingency — with a student Red Cell playing Beijing — students will gain a comprehensive understanding of how to frame policy options, write persuasively to a principal, and defend a recommendation under time pressure. This course will be held during spring break. Attendance is mandatory at every class session.