Quantitative Reasoning and Statistical Methods for Planning I

[Meier] = Meier, K., J. Brudney, and J. Bohte. Applied Statistics for Public and Nonprofit Administration . 7th ed. Belmont, CA: Thomson Wadsworth, 2009. ISBN: 9780495501107.

This is just what it sounds like: a straightforward text covering applied statistical methods from the point of view of a public or nonprofit agency, which is the closest thing the textbook world has to making a book specifically for planners. Sometimes the examples may seem more oriented to managers than planners, but it’s basically the same sort of thing: how do we use statistics to help inform decision making? We will rely on this book for formulas and computational problems.

[Horwitz] = Horwitz, L., and L. Ferleger. Statistics for Social Change . Boston, MA: South End Press, 1980. ISBN: 9780920057117.

[Hartwig] = Hartwig, F. and B. Dearing. Exploratory Data Analysis . Newbury Park, CA: Sage Publications, 1979. ISBN: 9780803913707.

[Davis] = Davis, J. The Logic of Causal Order . Newbury Park, CA: Sage Publications, 1985. ISBN: 9780803925533.

[Tufte] = Tufte, E. Visual and Statistical Thinking: Displays of Evidence for Decision Making . Cheshire, CT: Graphics Press, 1997b. ISBN: 9780961392130.

This small pamphlet reprints chapter 2 from Tufte’s larger work, Visual Explanations: Images and Quantities, Evidence and Narrative , so if you already have that, don’t bother to buy this. Due to the importance of the visual quality of the material, we are including this as a “required book.” It is a great intro to the endlessly-fascinating and graphically-stunning world of Edward R. Tufte.

[Berry] = Berry, W., and M. San ders. Understanding Multivariate Research: a primer for beginning social scientists . Boulder, CO: Westview Press, 2000. ISBN: 9780813399713.

The treatment of regression analysis in Meier et al. leaves something to be desired—it is more mechanical, and skips too quickly over questions of assumptions and interpretation of results. This short book was written for just this sort of class: a social science setting where students were not expected to learn everything about regression, but would need to know how to interpret work done by others and distinguish between meaningful results and junk science. Chapter five in particular gives a step-by-step critique of regressions presented in journal articles, very similar to what you will be asked to do (in part) in the second written assignment.

Beyond these books, most weeks include a few additional readings from other sources. Sometimes these will be a chapter in a book that covers a topic particularly well, or adds some interesting wrinkles to the standard treatment. Other times it will be an article or news item that demonstrates a particular concept, or gives a case for us to discuss. Remember: planners (and other professionals) spend very little time reading textbooks—most planning knowledge comes in the form of journal articles, case studies, publications of research findings, government reports, and other such sources. Typically these are less dry than text books, but they are also often written with a particular agenda or bias. Learning to read these sources in an open-minded but critical way is a real art, and an important part of a good planning.

This is a list of some recommended books that may be helpful. Some are more basic than the texts we are using, and some go into more depth on particular topics (e.g. graphs and charts; statistical software packages). Also many of the required readings represent individual chapters from longer books—these can be good sources for further study.

[Gonick] = Gonick, L., and W. Smith. The Cartoon Guide to Statistics . New York, NY: Collins Reference, 1993. ISBN: 9780062731029.

[Moore] = Moore, D. S., and W. I. Notz. Statistics: Concepts and Controversies . 7th ed. New York, NY: W. H. Freeman, 2008. ISBN: 9781429237024. A really fun introduction at a slightly lower level than we needed.

[Rabe-Hesketh] = Rabe-Hesketh, S., and B. S. Everitt. A Handbook of Statistical Analysis Using Stata . 4th ed. Boca Raton, FL: Chapman & Hall/CRC, 2006. ISBN: 9781584887560.

[Verzani] = Verzani, J. Using R for Introductory Statistics . Boca Raton, FL: Chapman & Hall/CRC, 2004. ISBN: 9781584884507. For those students interested in using R instead on Stata.

[Meier], chapters 1 and 2.

[Horwitz], chapter 2.

Hofstadter, D. “On Number Numbness.” Chapter 6 in Metamagical Themas: Questing for the Essence of Mind and Pattern . New York City, NY: BasicBooks, 1985. ISBN: 9780465045662.

Zeisel, H. Say It With Figures . 6th ed. Harper & Row, 6th edition, chapter 3 1985. ISBN: 9780061819827.

Diamond, J. “How Cats Survive Falls from New York Skyscrapers.” Nat Hist 8 (1989): 20-26.

[Horwitz], chapter 4.

Innis, J. “Sagas of Three Indicators.” Chapter 6 in Knowledge and Public Policy: The Search for Meaningful Indicators . New Brunswick, NJ: Transaction Publishers, 1995. ISBN: 9780887388101.

[Horwitz], chapter 6.

[Meier], chapters 4 and 5.

Abrahamse, A. F. “Counting the Homeless: Sampling Difficult Populations.” Chapter 3 in Public Policy and Statistics: Case Studies from RAND . Edited by S. Morton and J. Rolph. New York City, NY: Springer, 2000. ISBN: 9780387987774.

[Horwitz], chapters 5 and 7.

[Meier], chapter 6.

[Horwitz], chapter 1.

[Meier], chapter 3.

Popper, K. Conjectures and Refutations: The Growth of Scientific Knowledge . 5th ed. New York City, NY: Routledge Classics, 2002, chapter 10. ISBN: 9780415285940.

[Meier], chapters 7 and 8.

[Horwitz], chapters 8 and 9.

[Meier], chapter 9.

[Meier], chapters 11, 12 (skim), and 13.

[Horwitz], chapters 10 and 12.

[Meier], chapters 12 and 14.

[Horwitz], chapter 11.

SES #: 13 · TOPICS: Statistical software; data management · READINGS: Zeisel, H. Say It With Figures . 6th ed. Harper & Row, 6th edition, 1985, chapter 4. ISBN: 9780061819827.

[Meier], chapters 15-16.

Fairley, W. “Accidents on Route 2: Two Way Structures for Data.” In Statistics and Public Policy . Edited by W. Fairley and F. Mosteller. Reading, MA: Addison-Welsley, 1977. ISBN: 9780201021851.

[Meier], chapters 17-18.

[Horwitz], chapters 13-14.

[Berry], chapter 1.

[Meier], chapter 19.

Chatterjee, S., M. S. Handcock, and J. S. Simonoff. “PCB Contamination of U.S. Bays and Estuaries.” In A Casebook for a First Course in Statistics and Data Analysis . Hoboken, NJ: Wiley, 1994. ISBN: 9780471110309.

[Berry], Chapter 2.

[Berry], chapters 3-5.

[Meier], chapters 21 and 23.

[Rabe-Hesketh], chapter 3.

[Horwitz], chapter 3.

[Tufte], chapter 2.

Jencks, C. “The Politics of Income Measurement.” Chapter 2 in The Politics of Numbers . Edited by W. Alonso and P. Starr. New York, NY: Russell Sage Foundation, 1987. ISBN: 9780871540157.

Myers, D. Analysis with Local Census Data: Portraits of Change . New York City, NY: Academic Press, 1992, chapters 2-3. ISBN: 9780125123082.

Monmonier, M. S. How to Lie with Maps . 2nd ed. Chicago, IL: University of Chicago Press, 1996, chapter 9. ISBN: 9780226534213.

Portney, K. E. “Taking Sustainable Cities Seriously. A Comparative Analysis of Twenty-four US Cities.” Local Environment 7 (2002): 363-380.

Yang, Y. “A Tale of Two Cities: Physical Form and Neighborhood Satisfaction in Metropolitan Portland and Charlotte.” J Am Plann Assoc 74 (2008): 307-323.

Baade, R. A., and R. F. Dye. “The Impact of Stadiums and Professional Sports on Metropolitan Area Development.” Growth and Change 21 (2006): 1-14.

Mohring, H. “Land Values and the Measurement of Highway Benefits.” J Polit Econ 69 (1961): 236-249.

[Meier], chapters 25-26.

Dawes, R. M. Rational Choice in an Uncertain World . San Diego, CA: Harcourt Brace Jovanovich, 1988, chapters 2 and 6. ISBN: 9780155752153.

Clery, D., and A. Cho. “Large Hadron Collider: Is the LHC a Doomsday Machine?” Science 321 (2008): 1291.

Moore, T. “The Use of Forecasts in Creating and Adopting Visions for Regional Growth.” Chapter 2 in Engaging the Future: Forecasts, Scenarios, Plans, and Projects . Edited by L. Hopkins and M. Zapata. Cambridge, MA: Lincoln Institute of Land Policy, 2007. ISBN: 9781558441705.

Reamer, A. “In Dire Straits: The Urgent Need to Improve Economic Statistics.” Brookings March 4, 2009.

SES #: 24 · TOPICS: Return to research design; review · READINGS: [Meier], chapter 3 (review).