Intelligence: Practice, Problems and Prospects

SES #: 1 · TOPICS: Introduction · READINGS: No readings

Holdren, John, and Matt Bunn. “Technical Background: Nuclear Basics, Nuclear Weapons Design and Materials, and Nuclear Weapon Effects.” Nuclear Threat Initiative, 2002.

Serber, Robert. The Los Alamos Primer . Berkeley, CA: University of California Press, 1992, pp. ix-xxi and 1-61. ISBN: 9780520075764.

Hoddeson, Lillian, Paul W. Henrikson, Roger A. Meade, and Catherine Westfall. Critical Assembly: A Technical History of Los Alamos during the Oppenheimer Years, 1943-1945 . Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, 2004, pp. 228-248. ISBN: 9780521541176.

Garwin, Richard L., and Georges Charpak. Megawatts and Megatons . Chicago, IL: University of Chicago, 2002, pp. 13-30 and 58-78. ISBN: 9780226284279.

Holdren, John, and Matt Bunn. “Technical Background: Nuclear Material Production.” Nuclear Threat Initiative, 2002.

Carlisle, Rodney P., and Joan M. Zenzen. Supplying the Nuclear Arsenal: American Production Reactors, 1942-1992 . Baltimore, MD: Johns Hopkins University Press, 1996, pp. 70-78. ISBN: 9780801852077.

Albright, David, Frans Berkhout, and William Walker. Plutonium and Highly Enriched Uranium 1996, World Inventories, Capabilities, and Policies . Oxford, UK: Oxford University Press, 1997, pp. 271-279 and 461-471. ISBN: 9780198280095.

Herken, Gregg. Counsels of War . New York, NY: Oxford University Press, USA, 1987, pp. 3-17. ISBN: 9780195049862.

Sagan, Scott D. Moving Targets: Nuclear Strategy and National Security . Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1990, pp. 10-57. ISBN: 9780691023267.

Betts, Richard K. Nuclear Blackmail and Nuclear Balance . Washington, DC: Brookings Institution Press, 1987, pp. 1-16, 174-179, 180-195, and 206-211. ISBN: 9780815709350.

Greenwood, John T. “The Emergence of the Postwar Strategic Air Force, 1945-1953.” In Air Power and Warfare: The Proceedings of the 8th Military History Symposium United States Air Force Academy . Edited by Alfred F. Hurley and Robert C. Ehrhart. Honolulu, HI: University Press of the Pacific, 2002. ISBN: 9780898757903.

Rosenberg, David A. “American Postwar Air Doctrine and Organization: The Navy Experience.” In Air Power and Warfare: The Proceedings of the 8th Military History Symposium United States Air Force Academy . Edited by Alfred F. Hurley and Robert C. Ehrhart. Honolulu, HI: University Press of the Pacific, 2002. ISBN: 9780898757903.

Beard, Edmund. Developing the ICBM . New York, NY: Columbia University Press, 1976, pp. 129-194. ISBN: 9780231040129.

Spinardi, Graham. From Polaris to Trident: The Development of U.S. Fleet Ballistic Missle Technology . Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, 2008, pp. 19-34. ISBN: 9780521054010.

Carter, Ashton B., John D. Steinbrunner, and Charles A Zraket. Managing Nuclear Operations . Washington, DC: Brookings Institution Press, 1987, pp. 217-282 and 555-610. ISBN: 9780815713135.

Blair, Bruce G. Blair. Strategic Command and Control: Redefining the Nuclear Threat . Washington, DC: Brookings Institution Press, 1985, pp. 241-280. ISBN: 9780815709817.

Schilling, Warner. “U.S. Strategic Nuclear Concepts in the 1970’s.” International Security 6, no. 2 (Autumn 1981): 48-79.

Perry, William. “Technological Prospects.” In Rethinking the U.S. Strategic Posture . Edited by Barry M. Blechman. Pensacola, FL: Ballinger, 1982, pp. 129-155.

Cote, Owen. “Collecting the D-5 Dividend.” International Security 16, no. 2 (Autumn 1991): 117-145.

Epstein, Joshua M. The 1987 Defense Budget . Washington, DC: Brookings Institution Press, 2000, pp. 10-25. ISBN: 9780815724575.

Salman, Michael, Kevin J. Sullivan, and Stephen Van Evera. “Analysis or Propaganda.” In Nuclear Arguments: Understanding the Strategic Nuclear Arms and Arms Control Debates . Edited by Lynn Eden and Steven E. Miller. Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press, 1989, pp. 205-263. ISBN: 9780801494994.

Quester, George H. “The Epistemology of Nuclear Proliferation.” Journal of International Affairs 40 (Summer 1986): 177-188.

Paul, T. V. Power Versus Prudence: Why Nations Forgo Nuclear Weapons . Montreal, QB: McGill-Queens University Press, 2000, pp. 78-84. ISBN: 9780773520875.

Hymans, Jacques. The Psychology of Nuclear Proliferation: Identity, Emotions and Foreign Policy . London, UK: Cambridge University Press, 2006, pp. 114-140. ISBN: 9780521850766.

Hymans, Jacques. The Psychology of Nuclear Proliferation: Identity, Emotions and Foreign Policy . Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, 2006, pp. 85-113. ISBN: 9780521850766.

Gordon, Philip H. “Charles de Gaulle and the Nuclear Revolution.” In Cold War Statesmen Confront the Bomb: Nuclear Diplomacy Since 1945 . Edited by John Lewis Gaddis, Phillip H. Gordon, Ernest R. May, and Jonathan Rosenberg. New York, NY: Oxford University Press, USA, 1999, 216-235. ISBN: 9780198294689.

Abraham, Itty. The Making of the Indian Atomic Bomb: Science, Secrecy and the Postcolonial State . Hyderabad, India: Orient Longman, Ltd., 1999. ISBN: 9788125016151.

Perkovich, George. India’s Nuclear Bomb: The Impact on Global Proliferation . Berkeley, CA: University of California Press, 2001. ISBN: 9780520232105.

Lavoy, Peter. “Nuclear Myths and the Causes of Nuclear Proliferation.” In The Proliferation Puzzle: Why Nuclear Weapons Spread (and What Results) . Edited by Zachary S. Davis and Benjamin Frankel. New York, NY: Routledge, 1993, pp. 193-199. ISBN: 9780714641089.

Jervis, Robert. The Meaning of the Nuclear Revolution . Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press, 1990, pp. 1-45. ISBN: 9780801495656.

Sagan, Scott D., and Kenneth N. Waltz. The Spread of Nuclear Weapons . New York, NY: W.W. Norton & Company, 2002. ISBN: 9780393977479.

Walsh, Jim. “Iran’s Nuclear Program: Motivations, Consequences, and Options.” In Terrorist Attacks and Nuclear Proliferation: Strategies for Overlapping Dangers . By Demetrios Caraley. New York, NY: Academy of Political Science, 2007. ISBN: 9781884853067.

Oberdorfer, Don. The Two Koreas . New York, NY: Basic Books, 2002. ISBN: 9780465051625.

Snyder, Scott. Negotiating on the Edge: North Korean Negotiating Behavior . Washington, DC: USIP, 1999, pp. 17-42. ISBN: 9781878379948.

Reiss, Mitchell. “Negotiating with North Korea.” Conference paper presented at US-DPRK Next Steps Workshop, Nautilus Institute and Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, January 27, 2003, pp. 1-3.

Martin, Bradley K. Under the Loving Care of the Fatherly Leader . New York, NY: St. Martin’s Griffin, 2006. ISBN: 9780312323226.

Norland, Marcus. Avoiding the Apocalypse: The Future of the Two Koreas . Washington: IIE, 2000, pp. 59-141. ISBN: 9780881322781.

Walsh, Jim. “Trip Report from North Korea.” 2005

Black markets and new proliferation

Verba, Sidney, Kay Lehman Schlozman, and Henry E. Brady. Voice and Equality: Civic Voluntarism in American Politics . Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 1995. ISBN: 9780674942929.

Campbell, Andrea Louise. How Policies Make Citizens: Senior Political Activism and the American Welfare State . Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2003. ISBN: 9780691091891.

Jacobson, Gary C. The Politics of Congressional Elections . 6th ed. New York, NY: Pearson Longman, 2004. ISBN: 9780321100405.

Popkin, Samuel L. The Reasoning Voter: Communication and Persuasion in Presidential Campaigns . 2nd ed. Chicago, IL: Chicago University Press, 1994. ISBN: 9780226675459.

Rosenstone, Steven J., Roy L. Behr, and Edward H. Lazarus. Third Parties in America . 2nd ed. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1996. ISBN: 9780691026138.

Johnston, Richard, Michael G. Hagen, and Kathleen Hall Jamieson. The 2000 Presidential Election and the Foundations of Party Politics . New York, NY: Cambridge University Press, 2004. ISBN: 9780521813891.

Green, Donald, Bradley Palmquist, and Eric Schickler. Partisan Hearts and Minds: Political Parties and the Social Identities of Voters . New Haven, CT: Yale University Press, 2002. ISBN: 9780300092158.

Powell, G. Bingham. 1986. “American Voting Turnout in Comparative Perspective.” American Political Science Review 80, no. 1 (March 1986): 17-43.

Highton, Benjamin, and Raymond E. Wolfinger. “Estimating the Effects of the National Voter Registration Act of 1993.” Political Behavior 20, no. 2 (June 1998): 79-104.

Plutzer, Eric. “Becoming a Habitual Voter: Inertia, Resources, and Growth in Young Adulthood.” American Political Science Review 96, no. 1 (March 2002): 41-56.

Rosenstone, Steven, and John Mark Hansen. Mobilization, Participation, and Democracy in America . Chapters 6 and 7.

Aldrich, John H. “Rational Choice and Turnout.” American Journal of Political Science 37, no. 1 (February 1993): 246-78.

Campbell, Andrea L. How Policies Make Citizens: Senior Citizen Activism and the American Welfare State . Entire, especially chapters 6 and 7.

Soss, Joe. “Lessons of Welfare: Policy Design, Political Learning, and Political Action.” American Political Science Review 93, no. 2 (June 1999): 363-80.

Mettler, Suzanne. “Bring the State Back in to Civic Engagement: Policy Feedback Effects of the G.I. Bill for World War II Veterans.” American Political Science Review 96, no. 2 (June 2002): 351-65.

Fiorina, Morris. 1981. Retrospective Voting in American National Elections . New Haven, CT: Yale University Press, 1981, chapter 5. ISBN: 9780300025576.

MacKuen, Michael B., Robert S. Erikson, and James A. Stimson. “Macropartisanship.” American Political Science Review 83, no. 4 (December 1989): 1125-42.

Green, Donald, Bradley Palmquist, and Eric Schickler. Partisan Hearts and Minds: Political Parties and the Social Identities of Voters . Chapters 1-4 and 6.

Dalton, Russell J., and Martin P. Wattenberg. “The Not So Simple Act of Voting.” In Political Science: The State of the Discipline . Edited by Ada W. Finifter. Washington, DC: American Political Science Association, 1993. ISBN: 9781878147080.

Fiorina, Morris. Retrospective Voting in American National Elections . New Haven, CT: Yale University Press, 1981, chapters 5 and 10. ISBN: 9780300025576. (See also chapter 1 if you want more.)

Petrocik, John R. “Issue Ownership in Presidential Elections, with a 1980 Case Study.” American Journal of Political Science 40, no. 3 (August 1996): 825-50.

Kinder, Donald R., Gordon S. Adams, and Paul W. Gronke. “Economics and Politics in the 1984 American Presidential Election.” American Journal of Political Science 33, no. 2 (May 1989): 491-515.

Rahn, Wendy M., John Aldrich, Eugene Bordiga, and John L. Sullivan. “A Social-Cognitive Model of Candidate Appraisal.” In Information and Democratic Processes . Edited by John Ferejohn and James Kuklinski. Urbana: University of Illinois Press, 1990. ISBN: 9780252061134.

Popkin, Samuel L. The Reasoning Voter: Communication and Persuasion in Presidential Campaigns . Chapters 1-6.

Converse, Philip E. “Information Flow and the Stability of Partisan Attitudes.” Public Opinion Quarterly 26, no. 4 (Winter 1962): 578-99.

Luskin, Robert C. “Explaining Political Sophistication.” Political Behavior 12, no. 4 (December 1990): 331-61.

Lau, Richard P., and David P. Redlawsk. “Advantages and Disadvantages of Cognitive Heuristics in Political Decision Making.” American Journal of Political Science 45, no. 4 (October 2001): 951-71.

Kuklinski, James H., and Norman L. Hurley. “On Hearing and Interpreting Political Messages: A Cautionary Tale of Citizen Cue-Taking.” Journal of Politics 56, no. 3 (August 1994): 729-51.

Zaller, John. “Know Nothing Voters in U.S. Presidential Elections, 1948-1996.” Unpublished manuscript, 1999.

McDonald, Michael P., and Samuel Popkin. “The Myth of the Vanishing Voter.” American Political Science Review 95, no. 4 (December 2001): 963-974.

Price, Vincent, and John Zaller. “Who Gets the News?” Political Opinion Quarterly 57, no. 2 (Summer 1993): 133-64.

Box-Steffensmeier, Janet M., Gary C. Jacobson, and J. Tobin Grant. “Question Wording and the House Vote Choice: Some experimental evidence.” Political Opinion Quarterly 64, no. 3 (Autumn 2000): 257-270.

Burden, Barry C. “Voter Turnout and the National Election Studies.” Political Analysis 8 (2000): 389-98.

Silver, Brian D., Barbara A. Anderson, and Paul R. Abramson. “Who Overreports Voting?” American Political Science Review 80, no. 2 (June 1986): 613-24.

Iyengar, Shanto. “The Method is the Message: The Current State of Political Communication Research.” Political Communication 18 (2001): 225-9.

Ridout, Travis N., Michael Franz, Kenneth Goldstein, and Paul Freedman. “Measuring the Nature and Effects of Campaign Advertising.” Unpublished manuscript, 2002.

Finkel, Steven E. “Reexamining the ‘Minimal Effects’ Model in Recent Presidential Campaigns.” Journal of Politics 55, no. 1 (1993): 1-21.

Gelman, Andrew, and Gary King. “Why Are American Presidential Election Campaign Polls So Variable When Votes are So Predictable?” British Journal of Political Science 23, no. 4 (October 1993): 409-51.

Johnston, Richard, Michael G. Hagen, and Kathleen Hall Jamieson. The 2000 Presidential Election and the Foundations of Party Politics . (Skip chapter 3.)

Davis, Richard. The Press and American Politics. Upper Saddle River, NJ: Prentice Hall, 2000, chapter 14. ISBN: 9780130264046.

Patterson, Thomas E. Out of Order . New York, NY: Vintage Books, 1994, chapters 1 and 2. ISBN: 9780679755104.

Bartels, Larry M. “Messages Received: The Political Impact of Media Exposure.” American Political Science Review 87, no. 2 (June 1993): 267-85.

Iyengar, Shanto, Helmut Norpoth, and Kyu Hahn. “Consumer Demand for Election News: The Horserace Sells.” Journal of Politics 66 (2004): 157-75.

Zaller, John. “The Myth of Massive Media Impact Discredited Idea.” Chapter 2 in Political Persuasion and Attitude Change . Edited by Diana C. Mutz, Paul M. Sniderman, and Richard A. Brody. Ann Arbor, MI: University of Michigan Press, 1996, pp. 17-78. ISBN: 9780472065554.

Jacobson, Gary. The Politics of Congressional Elections . Chapters 1-3, 5, and 6.

Erikson, Robert S. “The Puzzle of Midterm Loss.” Journal of Politics 50, no. 4 (November 1988): 1011-29.

Cox, Gary W., and Jonathan N. Katz. “Why Did the Incumbency Advantage in U.S. House Elections Grow?” American Journal of Political Science 40, no. 2 (May 1996): 478-97.

Rosenstone, Steven J., Roy L. Behr, and Edward H. Lazarus. Third Parties in America . Chapters 1-2, 4-6, and 8-9.

Abramson, Paul, John Aldrich, Phil Paolino, and David Rohde. “Sophisticated Voting in the 1988 Presidential Primaries.” American Political Science Review 86, no. 1 (March 1992): 55-69.

Burden, Barry C. “Minor Parties in the 2000 Presidential Election.” In Models of Voting in Presidential Elections: The 2000 U.S. Election . Edited by Herbert F. Weisberg and Clyde Wilcox. Stanford, CA: Stanford University Press, 2003. ISBN: 9780804748568.

Meffert, Michael F., Helmut Norpoth, and Anirudh V. S. Ruhil. “Realignment and Macropartisanship.” American Political Science Review 95, no. 4 (December 2001): 953-62.

Carmines, Edward, John McIver, and James Stimson. “Unrealized Partisanship: A Theory of Dealignment.” Journal of Politics 49, no. 2 (May 1987): 376-400.

Abramowitz, Alan I., and Kyle L. Saunders. “Ideological Realignment in the U.S. Electorate.” Journal of Politics 60, no. 3 (August 1998): 634-52.

Layman, Geoffrey C., and Thomas M. Carsey. “Party Polarization and ‘Conflict Extension’ in the American Electorate.” American Journal of Political Science 46, no. 4 (October 2002): 786-802.

Jacobson, Gary C. “Party Polarization in National Politics: The Electoral Connection.” In Polarized Politics: Congress and the President in a Partisan Era . Edited by Jon R. Bond and Richard Fleisher. Washington, DC: Congressional Quarterly Books, 2000. ISBN: 9781568024936.

Lowenthal, Mark M. Intelligence: From Secrets to Policy. 2nd ed. Washington, DC: CQ Press, 2003. ISBN: 9781568027593. This book by a senior intelligence official provides a fundamental overview of the subject. It should be read prior to the first session and reviewed periodically for basic background on each session.

Treverton, Gregory. Reshaping National Intelligence for an Age of Information. Cambridge, NY: Cambridge University Press, 2001. ISBN: 9780521580960. Focuses on the changing role of intelligence since the end of the Cold War.

Richelson, Jeffrey T. The U.S. Intelligence Community. 4th ed. Boulder, CO: Westview Press, 1999. ISBN: 9780813368931. An in-depth look at the organization and functions of the intelligence community. Many chapters can be skimmed unless there is special interest in the subject.

Lowenthal, Mark M. Intelligence: From Secrets to Policy. 2nd ed. Washington, DC: CQ Press, 2003. ISBN: 9781568027593.

Treverton, Gregory. Reshaping National Intelligence for an Age of Information. Cambridge, UK, New York, NY: Cambridge University Press, 2001. ISBN: 9780521580960.

Richelson, Jeffrey T. The U.S. Intelligence Community. 4th ed. Boulder, CO: Westview Press, 1999. ISBN: 9780813368931.

Richelson. Chapter 1.

Johnson, Loch K. “Bricks and Mortar for a Theory of Intelligence.” Comparative Strategy 22, no. 1 (2003): 1-28.

Fry, Michael G., and Miles Hochstein. “Epistemic Communities: Intelligence Studies and International Relations.” In Espionage: Past, Present, and Future? Edited by Wesley K. Wark. London, UK: Frank Cass, 1994, pp. 14-28. ISBN: 9780714640990.

Gaddis, John Lewis. “Intelligence, Espionage, and Cold War History.” Chapter 5 in The United States and the End of the Cold War: Implications, Reconsiderations, Provocations . New York, NY: Oxford University Press, 1994, pp. 87-104. ISBN: 9780195085518.

Treverton. Chapter 1.

Richelson. Chapters 2, 3, and 6. (Skim)

Andrew, Christopher M. Chapter 5 in For the President’s Eyes Only: Secret Intelligence and the American Presidency from Washington to Bush . 1st ed. New York, NY: HarperCollins, 1995, pp. 149-198. ISBN: 9780060170370.

May, Ernest R. “Intelligence: Backing into the Future.” Foreign Affairs 71, no. 3 (Summer 1992): 63-72.

Kindsvater, Larry C. “A Senior Officer’s Perspective: The Need to Reorganize the Intelligence Community.” Studies in Intelligence 47, no. 1 (2003): 33-37.

Treverton. Chapter 5.

Richelson. Chapters 7-12. (Skim)

Richelson, Jeffrey T. “The Satellite Gap.” Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists 59, no. 1 (January/February 2003): 48-54.

Steele, Robert David. “Private Enterprise Intelligence: Its Potential Contribution to National Security.” Intelligence and National Security 10, no. 4 (October 1995): 212-228.

Fairchild, Brian P. Statement before the Joint Economic Committee of the United States Congress. May 20, 1998.

Treverton. Chapter 4.

Richelson. Chapter 14. (Skim)

Hulnick, Arthur. “The Intelligence Producer-Policy Consumer Linkage: A Theoretical Approach.” Intelligence and National Security 1, no. 1 (1986): 212-233.

Lefebvre, Stéphane. “A Look at Intelligence Analysis.” International Journal of Intelligence and Counterintelligence 17, no. 2 (Summer 2004): 231-264.

Johnson, Loch K. “The CIA’s Weakest Link.” The Washington Monthly , July/August 2001, 9-14.

Berkowitz, Bruce. “The DI and IT: Failing to Keep Up with the Information Revolution.” Studies in Intelligence 47, no. 1 (2003): 67-74.

Gormley, Dennis. “The Limits of Intelligence: Iraq’s Lessons.” Survival 46, no. 3 (Autumn 2004): 7-28.

Treverton. Chapter 6.

Davis, Jack. “The Kent-Kendall Debate of 1949.” Studies in Intelligence 36, no. 5 (Summer 1991): pp. 91-103.

Harkabi, Yehoshafat. “The Intelligence-Policymaker Tangle.” The Jerusalem Quarterly 30 (Winter 1984): 125-131.

Hughes, Thomas L. The Fate of Facts in a World of Men: Foreign Policy and Intelligence-Making . Headline Series No. 233. New York, NY: Foreign Policy Association, 1976, pp. 36-52.

Prados, John. “Iraq: A Necessary War?” Bulletin of Atomic Scientists 59, no. 3 (May/June 2003): 26-33.

Barstow, David. “The Nuclear Card.” New York Times , October 3, 2004, A1.

Hersh, Seymour. “Selective Intelligence.” The New Yorker , May 12, 2003.

Betts, Richard. “Analysis, War, and Decision: Why Intelligence Failures are Inevitable.” World Politics 31, no. 1 (1978): 61-89.

Levite, Ariel. Intelligence and Strategic Surprises . New York, NY: Columbia University Press, 1987, pp. 1-38. ISBN: 9780231063746.

Davis, Jack. “Strategic Warning: If Surprise is Inevitable, What Role for Analysis?” Occasional Papers 2, no. 1 (January 2003). Washington, DC: Sherman Kent Center for Intelligence Analysis.

Vickers, Robert, Jr. “The State of Warning Today.” Defense Intelligence Journal 7, no. 2 (1998): 9-15.

Ellis, Jason D., and Geoffrey D. Kiefer. Chapter 4 in Combating Proliferation: Strategic Intelligence and Security Policy . Baltimore, MD: Johns Hopkins University Press, 2004, pp. 87-108. ISBN: 9780801879586.

Treverton. Chapter 3.

Richelson. Chapters 4, and 5. (Skim)

Handel, Michael I. “Leaders in Intelligence.” In Leaders and Intelligence . London, UK: Frank Cass, 1989, pp. 3-39. ISBN: 9780714640594.

Keegan, John. Introduction, Chapter 1, and Conclusion in Intelligence in War: Knowledge of the Enemy from Napoleon to al Qaeda . New York, NY: Alfred A Knopf, 2003, pp. 3-25, and 321-352. ISBN: 9780375400537.

Krepinevich, Andrew. “Emerging Threats, Revolutionary Capabilities, and Military Transformation.” Testimony before the Senate Armed Services Subcommittee on Emerging Threats and Capabilities . March 5, 1999.

May, Ernest. Strange Victory: Hitler’s Conquest of France . 1st ed. New York, NY: Hill and Wang, 2000, pp. 240-268. ISBN: 9780809089062.

MacDonald, Charles B. A Time for Trumpets: The Untold Story of the Battle of the Bulge . New York, NY: Perennial, 1997, pp. 17-79. ISBN: 9780688151577.

Wirtz, James. “Intelligence to Please? The Order of Battle Controversy during the Vietnam War.” Political Science Quarterly 106, no. 2 (1991): 239-263.

Beesly, Patrick. Introduction and Chapters 1, 6, 7, 10, and 11 in Very Special Intelligence: The Story of the Admiralty’s Operational Intelligence Centre , 1939-1945 . London, UK: Greenhill Books, 2000. ISBN: 9781853673986.

Cohen, Eliot, and John Gooch. Chapter 4 in Military Misfortunes: The Anatomy of Failure in War , 1990 . New York, NY: The Free Press, 1990, pp. 59-94. ISBN: 9780029060605.

Ford, Harold P. CIA and the Vietnam Policymakers: Three Episodes 1962-68 . Langley, VA: Center for the Study of Intelligence, Central Intelligence Agency, 1998, pp. 86-104.

Wirtz, James. “Conclusion: Explaining the Failure of Intelligence.” In The Tet Offensive: Intelligence Failure in War . Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press, 1991, pp. 252-275. ISBN: 9780801424861.

Grau, Lester W. “Something Old, Something New: Guerrillas, Terrorists, and Intelligence Analysts.” Military Review 84 (July-August 2004): 42-49.

Metz, Steven. “Insurgency and Counterinsurgency in Iraq.” The Washington Quarterly 27, no. 1 (Winter 2003-04): 25-36.

Richelson. Chapter 16.

Andrew, Christopher M. Chapter 5 in For the President’s Eyes Only: Secret Intelligence and the American Presidency from Washington to Bush . 1st ed. New York, NY: HarperCollins, 1995, pp. 199-212, and 250-276. ISBN: 9780060170370.

Shulsky, Adam. Silent Warfare: Understanding the World of Intelligence . 3rd ed. Washington, DC: Brassey’s, 2002, Chapter 4, pp. 83-109. ISBN: 9781574883459.

Berkowitz, Bruce D., and Allan E. Goodman. “The Logic of Covert Action.” The National Interest 51 (Spring 1998): 38-46.

Treverton, Gregory F. “Controlling Covert Action.” In Controlling Intelligence . Edited by Glenn P. Hastedt. London, UK: Frank Cass, 1991, pp. 113-133. ISBN: 9780714633947.

Godson, Roy. Chapter 4 in Dirty Tricks and Trump Cards: U.S. Covert Action and Counterintelligence . Washington, DC: Brassey’s, 2000, pp. 120-183. ISBN: 9780765806994.

National Security Archives. “El Salvador: War, Peace and Human Rights, 1980-1994.”

National Security Archives. “Nicaragua: The Making of U.S. Policy, 1962-1989.”

National Commission on Terrorist Attacks Upon the United States. Chapters 3, 4, 6, 8, and 11 in The 9/11 Commission Report . New York, NY: Norton, 2004. ISBN: 9780393326710.

Herman, Michael. “Counter-Terrorism, Information Technology, and Intelligence Change.” Intelligence and National Security 18, no. 4 (Winter 2003): 40-58.

Gunaratna, Rohan. “The Post-Madrid Face of Al Qaeda.” The Washington Quarterly 27, no. 3 (Summer 2004): 91-100.

Pillar, Paul. “Counterterrorism after Al Qaeda.” The Washington Quarterly 27, no. 3 (Summer 2004): 101-113.

Berkowitz, Bruce. “Intelligence and the War on Terrorism.” Orbis 46, no. 2 (Spring 2002): 289-300.

Kauppi, Mark V. “Counterterrorism Analysis 101.” In Defense Intelligence Journal 1, no. 1 (Winter 2002): 39-53.

Ellis, Jason D., and Geoffrey D. Kiefer. Chapters 2, 3, and 5 in Combating Proliferation: Strategic Intelligence and Security Policy . Baltimore, MD: Johns Hopkins University Press, 2004. ISBN: 9780801879586.

Carter, Ashton B. “How to Counter WMD.” Foreign Affairs 83, no. 5 (September/October 2004): 72-85.

Treverton, Gregory F. “Intelligence: The Achilles Heel of the Bush Doctrine.” Arms Control Today (July/August 2003): 9-11.

“Comprehensive Report of the Special Advisor to the Director of Central Intelligence on Iraq’s Weapons of Mass Destruction.” September 30th, 2004. (“Duelfer Report”)

Richelson. Chapter 14.

Andrew, Christopher M. Chapter 5 in For the President’s Eyes Only: Secret Intelligence and the American Presidency from Washington to Bush . 1st ed. New York, NY: HarperCollins, 1995, pp. 370-374, 389-390, and 397-424. ISBN: 9780060170370.

Johnson, Loch K. “The CIA and the Question of Accountability.” Intelligence and National Security 12, no. 1 (January 1997): 178-200.

Knott, Stephen. “Executive Power and the Control of American Intelligence.” Intelligence and National Security 13, no. 2 (Summer 1998): 171-176.

Johnson, Loch K. “Intelligence and the Challenge of Collaborative Government.” Intelligence and National Security 13, no. 2 (Summer 1998): 177-182.

Jeffrey-Jones, Rhodri. Introduction, Chapter 13, and Conclusion in The CIA and American Democracy . 2nd ed. New Haven, CT: Yale University Press, 1998. ISBN: 9780300077377.

———. Chapters 12-14 in Cloak and Dollar: A History of American Secret Intelligence . New Haven, CT: Yale University Press, 2003. ISBN: 9780300101591.

Treverton. Chapter 2.

Best, Richard A., Jr. Proposals for Intelligence Reorganization , 1949-2004 . Washington, DC: Congressional Research Service, Library of Congress, July 29, 2004.

Wilson, James Q. “Thinking About Reorganization.” In U.S. Intelligence at the Crossroads: Agendas for Reform . Edited by Roy Godson, Ernest R. May, and Gary Schmitt. Washington, DC: Brassey’s, 1995. ISBN: 9780028811222.

Davis, Lynn E., Gregory F. Treverton, Daniel Byman, Sara Daly, and William Rosenau. “Coordinating the War on Terrorism.” RAND Occasional Paper , March 2004. OP-110-RC.

National Commission on Terrorist Attacks Upon the United States. Chapter 13 in The 9/11 Commission Report . New York, NY: Norton, 2004. ISBN: 9780393326710.

Cordesman, Anthony. “The 9/11 Commission Report: Strengths and Weaknesses.” Center for Strategic and International Studies, August 2, 2004.

Berinsky, Adam J. Silent Voices . Princeton: Princeton University Press, 2004. ISBN: 9780691115870.

Campbell, Angus. The American Voter . Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1980. ISBN: 9780226092546.

Carpini, Delli, Michael X., and Scott Keeter. What Americans Know About Politics and Why It Matters . New Haven: Yale University Press, 1997. ISBN: 9780300072754.

Gilens, Martin. Why Americans Hate Welfare . Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 2000. ISBN: 022629653.

Herbst, Susan. Numbered Voices: How Opinion Polling Has Shaped American Politics . Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1995. ISBN: 9780226327433.

Holsti, Ole R. Public Opinion and American Foreign Policy . Michigan: University of Michigan Press, 1997. ISBN: 9780472066193.

Iyengar, Shanto, Donald R. Kinder, and Benjamin I. Page. News That Matters . Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1989. ISBN: 9780226388571.

Kinder, Donald R., and Lynn M. Sanders. Divided by Color: Racial Politics and Democratic Ideals . Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1997. ISBN: 0226425741.

Kuklinski, James H. Citizens and Politics . Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2001. ISBN: 9780521593762.

Mutz, Daina C. Impersonal Influence: How Perceptions of Mass Collectives Affect Political Attitudes . Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1998. ISBN: 9780521637268.

Mackuen, Michael B., and George Rabinowitz. Electoral Democracy . Michigan: University of Michigan Press, 2003. ISBN: 9780472068203.

Mendelberg, Tali. The Race Card . Princeton: Princeton University Press, 2001. ISBN: 9780691070711.

Page, Benjamin I., and Robert Y. Shapiro. The Rational Public . Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1992. ISBN: 9780226644783.

Sears, David O., Jim Sidanius, and Lawrence Bobo. Racialized Politics: The Debate about Racism in America . Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 2000. ISBN: 9780226744070.

Zaller, John R. The Nature and Origins of Mass Opinion . Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1992. ISBN: 9780521407861.

Required Readings

Herbst, Susan*. Numbered Voices: How Opinion Polling Has Shaped American Politics.* Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1993, Introduction and chapter 3.

Key, V. O. Public Opinion and American Democracy . New York: Knopf, 1961, pp. 3-18.

Blumer, Herbert. “Public Opinion and Public Opinion Polling.” American Sociological Review 13 (1948): 542-554.

Converse, Philip. E. “Changing Conceptions of Public Opinion in The Political Process.” Public Opinion Quarterly 51/Supplement (1987): 12-24.

Sanders, Lynn M. “Democratic Politics and Survey Research.” Philosophy of the Social Sciences 29 (1999): 248-80.

Berinsky, Adam J. “Public Opinion in the 1930s and 1940s: The Analysis of Quota Controlled Sample Survey Data.” Working Paper (2004), read through pp. 25.

Recommended Readings

Tilly, Charles. “Speaking Your Mind Without Elections, Surveys, or Social Movements.” Public Opinion Quarterly 47 (1983): 461-478.

Lippman, Walter. Public Opinion . New York: Free Press Paperbacks (1922), 1997, chapters 1, 3, and 4.

Bryce, James. “The Nature of Public Opinion.” 1916. Reprinted in Public Opinion and Propaganda. Edited by Katz, D., Dorwin Cartwright, Samuel Eldersveld, and Alfred McClung Lee. New York: Holt, Rinehart and Winston, 1954, pp. 3-11.

Fishkin, James S. The Voice of the People . New Haven, CT.: Yale University Press, 1995.

Brehm, John. The Phantom Respondents . Ann Arbor, MI: University of Michigan Press, 1993.

Downs, Anthony. An Economic Theory of Democracy . New York: Harper and Row, 1957, chapters 11-13.

Zaller, John. The Nature and Origins of Mass Opinion . Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1992, chapters 2, 3, and 6.

Delli Carpini, Michael X., and Scott Keeter. What Americans Know About Politics and Why It Matters. New Haven: Yale University Press, 1996, Introduction and chapter 4 .

Mondak, Jeffrey. “Developing Valid Knowledge Scales.” American Journal of Political Science 45 (2001): 224-238.

Lupia, Arthur. “Shortcuts Versus Encyclopedias: Information and Voting Behavior in California Insurance Reform Elections.” American Political Science Review 88 (1994): 63-76.

Lodge, Milton, Marco R. Steenbergen, and Shawn Brau. “The Responsive Voter: Campaign Information and The Dynamics of Candidate Evaluation.” American Political Science Review 89 (1995): 309-26.

Campbell, Angus, Philip E. Converse, Warren E. Miller, and Donald E. Stokes. The American Voter . Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1960, chapter 10 (SKIM!).

Converse, Philip E. “The Nature of Belief Systems in the Mass Publics.” In Ideology and Discontent . Edited by David Apter. New York: Free Press.

Lane, Robert E. Political Ideology: Why the Common Man Believes What He Does . New York: Free Press, 1962, chapters 4, and 22.

Achen, Christopher H. “Mass Political Attitudes and the Survey Response.” American Political Science Review 69 (1975): 1218-1231.

Kinder, Donald R. “Diversity and Complexity in American Public Opinion.” In Political Science: The State of the Discipline. Edited by Ada Finifter. Washington, DC: APSA Press, 1983.

Zaller, John. The Nature and Origins of Mass Opinion . Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1992, chapters 4, and 5.

Converse, Philip. “Assessing the Capacity of Mass Electorates.” Annual Review of Political Science 3 (2000): 331-353.

Downs, Anthony. An Economic Theory of Democracy . New York: Harper and Row, 1957, chapters 1-3.

Sears, David O., Richard R. Lau, Tom Tyler, and A. M. Allen Jr. “Self-Interest versus Symbolic Politics in Policy Attitudes and Presidential Voting.” American Political Science Review 74 (1980): 670-684.

Green, Donald Philip, and Jonathan A. Cowden. “Who Protests: Self-Interest and White Opposition to Busing.” The Journal of Politics 54 (1992): 471-496.

Kinder, Donald, and Roderick Kiewiet. “Sociotropic Politics: The American Case.” British Journal of Political Science 11 (1981): 129–41.

Kramer, Gerald. “The Ecological Fallacy Revisited: Aggregate - Versus Individual - Level Findings on Economics and Elections, and Sociotropic Voting.” American Political Science Review 77 (1983): 92–111.

Cambell, Andrea. “Self-Interest, Social Security, and the Distinctive Participation Patterns of Senior Citizens.” American Political Science Review 96 (2002): 565-574.

Markus, Gregory B. “The Impact of Personal and National Economic Conditions On the Presidential Vote: A Pooled Cross-Sectional Analysis.” American Journal of Political Science 32 (1988): 137-54.

Conover, Pamela J. “The Influence of Group Identifications on Political Perception and Evaluation.” The Journal of Politics 46 (1984): 760-784.

Converse, Philip E. “The nature of belief systems in mass publics.” In Ideology and Discontent . Edited by D. E. Apter. New York: The Free Press, 1964, re-read pp. 234-238.

Kinder, Donald R. “Belief Systems after Converse.” In Electoral Democracy . Edited by Michael MacKuen and George Rabinowitz. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press, 2003.

Sears, David O. et al. Racialized Politics: The Debate About Racism in America . Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 2000, chapter 1.

Kinder, Donald R., and Lynn M. Sanders. Divided by Color: Racial Politics and Democratic Ideals. Chicago: Chicago University Press, 1996, chapters 2, and 5.

Mendelberg, Tali. The Race Card, 2001, chapters 1, 6, and 7.

Brady, Henry E., and Paul M. Sniderman. “Attitude Attribution: A Group Basis for Political Reasoning.” American Political Science Review 79 (1985): 1061-1078.

Dawson, Michael. Behind the Mule: Race and Class in African American Politics . Princeton University Press, 1994.

Lee, Taeku. Mobilizing Public Opinion: Black Insurgency and Racial Attitudes in the Civil Rights Era . Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 2002.

Feldman, Stanley. “Structure and Consistency in Public Opinion: The Role of Core Beliefs and Values.” American Journal of Political Science 32 (1988): 416-440.

Feldman, Stanley, and John Zaller. “The Political Culture of Ambivalence.” American Journal of Political Science 36 (1992): 268-307.

Chong, Dennis. “How People Think, Reason, and Feel about Rights and Liberties.” American Journal of Political Science 37 (1993): 867-99.

Alvarez, R. Michael, and John Brehm. “Are Americans Ambivalent Toward Racial Policies?” American Journal of Political Science 41 (1997): 345-75.

Stoker, Laura. “Political Value Judgments.” In Citizens and Politics . Edited by James H. Kuklinski Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, pp. 433-468.

Feldman, Stanley, and Marco Steenbergen. “The Humanitarian Foundations of Public Support for Social Welfare.” American Journal of Political Science 45 (2001): 658-677.

Alvarez, R. Michael, and John Brehm. Hard Choices, Easy Answers: Values, Information, and American Public Opinion . Princeton: Princeton University Press, 2002.

Hochschild, Jennifer L. What’s Fair? American Beliefs about Distributive Justice . Cambridge Harvard University Press, 1981.

Luker, Kristin. Abortion and the Politics of Motherhood . Berkely: University of California Press, 1984, chapters 1, 7, and 8.

McClosky, Herbert, and Jon Zaller. The American Ethos: Public Attitudes Toward Capitalism and Democracy . Cambridge, Massachusetts: Harvard University Press, 1984.

Smith, Rogers. “Beyond Tocqueville, Myrdal, and Hartz: The Multiple Traditions of America.” American Political Science Review 87 (1993): 549-566.

Huckfeld, Robert, and John Sprague. “Networks in Context: The Social Flow of Political Information.” American Political Science Review 81 (1987): 1197-1216.

Oliver, Eric, and Tali Mendelberg. “Reconsidering the Environmental Determinants of Racial Attitudes.” American Journal of Political Science 44 (2000): 574-589.

Mutz, Diana C. Impersonal Influence: How Perceptions of Mass Collectives Affect Political Attitudes. New York: Cambridge University Press, 1998, chapters 1, 4, 8, and 9.

Berinsky, Adam J. Silent Voices: Public Opinion and Political Representation in America. 2004, chapters 2, and 3.

Krysan, Maria. “Privacy and the Expression of White Racial Attitudes.” Public Opinion Quarterly 62 (1998): 506-544.

Schuman, Howard, and Jean M. Converse. “The Effect of Black and White Interviewers on Black Responses.” Public Opinion Quarterly 35 (1971): 44-68.

Tourangeau, Roger, and Tom W. Smith. “Asking Sensitive Questions: The Impact of Data Collection Mode, Question Format, and Question Context.” Public Opinion Quarterly 60 (1996): 275-304.

Iyengar, Shanto, and Donald Kinder. News that Matters . Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1987, chapters 1-3, and 6-12.

Miller, Joanne, and Jon Krosnick. “News Media Impact on the Ingredients of Presidential Evaluations.” American Journal of Political Science 44, no. 2 (2000): 301-15.

Nelson, Thomas E., Rosalee A. Clausen, and Zoe M. Oxley. “Media Framing of a Civil Liberties Conflict and Its Effect on Tolerance.” The American Political Science Review 91 (1997): 567-83.

Gilens, Martin. Why Americans Hate Welfare . Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1999, chapters 5, and 6.

Kinder, Donald R. “Communication and Opinion.” Annual Review of Political Science 1 (1998): 167-197.

Druckman, Jamie. “The Implications of Framing Effects for Citizen Competence.” Political Behavior 23 (2001): 225-256.

Bartels, Larry M. “Messages Received: The Political Impact of Media Exposure.” American Political Science Review 87 (1993): 267-285.

Zaller, John. “The Myth of Massive Media Impact Revived: New Support for a Discredited Idea.” In Political Persuasion and Attitude Change. Edited by Diana C. Mutz, Paul M. Sniderman, and Richard A. Brody. 1996, pp-17-78.

Page, Benjamin I., and Robert Y. Shapiro. The Rational Public: Fifty Years of Trends in American Policy Preferences. Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1992, chapters 1, 2, 8, and 9.

Converse, Philip E. “Popular Representation and the Distribution of Information.” In Information and Democratic Processes. Edited by John Ferejohn and James Kuklinski. Urbana and Chicago: University of Illinois, 1990.

Bartels, Larry M. “Uninformed Votes: Information Effects in Presidential Elections.” American Journal of Political Science 40 (1996): 194-230.

Althaus, Scott L. “Information Effects in Collective Preferences.” American Political Science Review 92, no.2 (1996): 545-558.

Gilens, Marty. “Political Ignorance and Collective Policy Preferences.” American Political Science Review 95 (2001): 379-396.

Stimson, James A. Public Opinion in America. Moods, Cycles, and Swings . 2nd ed. Boulder, Colorado: Westview Press, 1999.

Stimson, James A., Michael B. MacKuen, and Robert S. Erikson. “Dynamic Representation.” American Political Science Review 89 (1995): 543-565.

Page, Benjamin I., and Robert Y. Shapiro. “Effects of Public Opinion on Policy.” American Political Science Review 77 (1983): 175-190.

Zaller, John. “Coming to Grips with V. O. Key’s Concept of Latent Opinion.” In Electoral Democracy. Edited by Michael MacKuen and George Rabinowitz. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press, 2003.

Wlezien, Christopher. “The Public as Thermostat: Dynamics of Preferences for Spending.” American Journal of Political Science 39 (1995): 981-1000.

Hansen, Mark. “Individuals, Institutions, and Public Preferences over Public Finance.” American Political Science Review 92 (1998): 513-531.

Bartels, Larry M. “Homer Gets A Tax Cut: Inequality and Public Policy in the Public Mind.” Typescript, Princeton University (available from instructor), 2003.

Bartels, Larry M. “Constituency Opinion and Congressional Policy Making: The Reagan Defense Buildup.” American Political Science Review 85 (1991): 457-474.

Jacobs, Lawrence R., and Robert Y. Shapiro. Politicians Don’t Pander: Political Manipulation and the Loss of Democratic Responsiveness. Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 2000, chapters 1, 2, and 9.

Mueller, John. “Trends in Popular Support for the Wars in Korea and Vietnam.” American Political Science Review 65 (1971): 358-75.

Modigliani, Andre. “Hawks and Doves, Isolation and Political Distrust: An Analysis of Public Opinion on Military Policy.” American Political Science Review 56 (1972): 960-978.

Zaller, John. The Nature and Origins of Mass Opinion . Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1992, chapter 9.

Hurwitz, Jon, and Mark Peffley. “How Are Foreign Policy Attitudes Structured? A Hierarchical Model.” American Political Science Review 81 (1987): 1099-120.

Berinsky, Adam J. Silent Voices: Public Opinion and Political Representation in America. Chapter 5.

Holsti, Olie. Public Opinion and American Foreign Policy. 1996.

Berelson, Bernard. “Democratic Theory and Public Opinion.” Public Opinion Quarterly 16 (1950): 313-330.

Bartels, Larry. “Democracy with Attitudes.” In Electoral Democracy. Edited by Michael MacKuen and George Rabinowitz. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press.

Key, V. O. Public Opinion and American Democracy. New York: Knopf, 1961, chapter 21.

Zaller, John. The Nature and Origins of Mass Opinion. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1992, chapter 12.

Page, Benjamin I., and Robert Y. Shapiro. The Rational Public: Fifty Years of Trends in American Policy Preferences. Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1992, chapter 10.

Verba, Sidney. “The Citizen as Respondent: Sample Surveys and American Democracy.” American Political Science Review 90 (1996): 1-7.

Berinsky, Adam J. Silent Voices: Public Opinion and Political Representation in America. Conclusion.

Jacobs, Lawrence R., and Robert Y. Shapiro. Politicians Don’t Pander: Political Manipulation and the Loss of Democratic Responsiveness. Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 2000, chapter 10.

Ginsberg, Benjamin. The Captive Public. New York: Basic Books_,_ 1986, chapter 3.