The Art of the Probable
Examines literary texts and/or films in relation to the history of the idea of probability. Traces the growing importance of probability as a basic property of things and the world, as well as a measure of the reliability of our ideas and beliefs. Connects the development and use of probabilistic reasoning (e.g., in the lottery and in statistics) with literary and cultural concerns regarding the rationality of belief, risk and uncertainty, free will and determinism, chance and fate. Discussion of the work of scientific and philosophical pioneers of probabilistic thought (e.g., Pascal, Leibniz, Bernoulli, Laplace) in conjunction with works by Shakespeare, Voltaire, H. G. Wells, Pynchon and Stoppard, among others. Enrollment limited.
Spring 2008 · The Art of the Probable: Literature and Probability
"The Art of the Probable" addresses the history of scientific ideas, in particular the emergence and development of mathematical probability. But it is neither meant to be a history of the exact sciences _per se_ nor an annex to, say, the Course 6 curriculum in probability and statistics. Rather, our objective is to focus on the formal, thematic, and rhetorical features that imaginative literature shares with texts in the history of probability. These shared issues include (but are not limited to): the attempt to quantify or otherwise explain the presence of chance, risk, and contingency in everyday life; the deduction of causes for phenomena that are knowable only in their effects; and, above all, the question of what it means to think and act rationally in an uncertain world. Our course therefore aims to broaden students' appreciation for and understanding of how literature interacts with – both reflecting upon and contributing to – the scientific understanding of the world. We are just as centrally committed to encouraging students to regard imaginative literature as a unique contribution to knowledge in its own right, and to see literary works of art as objects that demand and richly repay close critical analysis. It is our hope that the course will serve students well if they elect to pursue further work in Literature or other discipline in SHASS, and also enrich or complement their understanding of probability and statistics in other scientific and engineering subjects they elect to take.
Readings
- Sophocles. Oedipus Rex . In The Three Theben Plays . Introduction by Bernard Knox; translated by Robert Fagles. New York, NY: Penguin Classics, 2000. ISBN: 9780140444254.
- Shakespeare, William. Hamlet . New York, NY: Penguin Classics, 2005. ISBN: 9788589533386.
- Cardano, Gerolamo. Section 11, end of Section 14, beginning for Section 15, and beginning of Section 20 from Book on Games and Chances. Translated from the Latin by Sydney Henry Gould. In Ore, Oystein. Cardano, The Gambling Scholar . Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1953 (reprinted Dover Publications, 1965), pp. 194-96, 202-203, and 215-19.
- Correspondence between Blaise Pascal and Perre Fermat on “The Problem of Points,” 1654. (a) Pascal to Fermat, July 29; (b) Pascal to Fermat, August 24; (c) Fermat to Pascal, August 29 in A Source Book in Mathematics . Translated by Vera Stanford, edited by D. E. Smith. Mineola, NY: Dover Publications, 1984. ISBN: 9780486646909. (d) Fermat to Pascal September 25; (e) Pascal to Fermat, October 27 in Games, Gods and Gambling . Translated by Maxine Merrington, edited by F. N. David. Mineola, NY: Dover Publications, 1998. ISBN: 9780486400235.
- Pascal, Blaise. “Discourse Concerning the Machine.” Chapter XLV in Penseés and Other Writings . New York, NY: Oxford University Press, 1995, pp. 153-58. ISBN: 9780192829900.
- Leibniz, Gottfried Wilhelm. Excerpts from Leibniz: Selections . Edited by Philip P. Wiener. New York, NY: Charles Scribner’s Sons, 1951, pp. 82-83, 85-87, 94-96. ISBN: 9780684125510.
- ———. “Necessary and Contingent Truths (c. 1686).” In Leibniz: Philosophical Writings . Edited by G. H. R. Parkinson. London, UK: Dent, Rowman and Littlefield, 1983, pp. 96-105. ISBN: 9780460119054.
- Voltaire. Candide . Translated by John Butt. New York, NY: Penguin Classics, 1950. ISBN: 9780140440041.
- Hume, David. “Of Probability.” Section VI in Enquiries Concerning Human Understanding and Concerning the Principles of Morals . 3rd ed. Edited by L. A. Selby-Bigge and P. H. Nidditch. New York, NY: Oxford University Press, 1975, pp. 56-59. ISBN: 9780198245360.
- ———. A Treatise of Human Nature . 2nd ed. Edited by L. A. Selby-Bigge and P. H. Nidditch. New York, NY: Oxford University Press, 1978, pp. 74-107, 124-141, book I, part III, sections II-XIII and XI-XII. ISBN: 9780198245889.
- Sterne, Lawrence. A Sentimental Journey . New York, NY: Penguin Classics, 2002. ISBN: 9780140437799.
- For Prof. Kibel’s students
- For Prof. Raman’s students
- Hume, David. “Of Personal Identity.” Book 1, Part IV, Section VI in A Treatise of Human Nature . 2nd ed. Edited by L. A. Selby-Bigge and P. H. Nidditch. New York, NY: Oxford University Press, 1978, pp. 251-262. ISBN: 9780198245889.
- Wordsworth, William. “The Thorn.” In William Wordsworth : The Major Works . Edited by Stephen Gill. New York, NY: Oxford University Press, 2008, pp. 59-66. ISBN: 9780199536863.
- Bernoulli, Daniel. “Exposition of a New Theory on the Measurement of Risk (1738).” Translated by Dr. Louise Sommer. Econometrica 22, no. 1 (January 1954): 23-36.
- Wells, H. G. The Island of Dr. Moreau . New York, NY: Signet Classics, 2005. ISBN: 9780451529893.
- Borges, Jorge Luis. “The Garden of Forking Paths,” “The Lottery in Babylon,” “Pierre Menard, Author of the Quixote ,” and “The Library of Babel.” In Labyrinths: Selected Stories & Other Writings . Edited by D. A. Yates and J. E. Irby. New York, NY: New Directions, 2007. ISBN: 9780811216999.
- Mallarmé, Stéphane. “Preface,” and “A Throw of the Dice ( Un Coup De Dés ) (1914).” In Collected Poems . Translated by Henry Weinfield. Berkeley, CA: University of California Press, 1996, pp. 121-144. ISBN: 9780520207110.
- Pynchon, Thomas. The Crying of Lot 49 . New York, NY: Harper Perennial, 2006. ISBN: 9780060913076.
- Maxwell, James Clerk. “Letter from Maxwell to Peter Guthrie Tait, December 11, 1867,” and “Letter from Maxwell to Peter Guthrie Tait (undated) ‘Catechism on Demons.’” In Maxwell on Heat and Statistical Mechanics . Edited by Elizabeth Garber et al. Bethlehem, PA: Lehigh University Press, 1995, pp. 176-180. ISBN: 9780934223348.
- French, A. P. and P. J. Kennedy, eds. “The Bohr-Einstein Dialogue.” In Neils Bohr: A Centenary Volume . Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 1985, pp. 121-140. ISBN: 9780674624153.
- Stoppard, Tom. Rosencrantz and Guildenstern are Dead . New York, NY: Grove Press, 1994. ISBN: 9780802132758.
- Pope, Alexander. Essay on Man and Other Poems . Mineola, NY: Dover Publications, 1994. ISBN: 9780486280530.
- Two discussions: Sophcles: Oedipus Rex ; Aristotle
- Lecture: Pascal and Hamlet
- Two discussions: Shakespeare, Hamlet ; Pascal; Cardano
- Two discussions: Pope: An Essay on Man (selections); Newton; Leibniz; Huygens, de Moivre
- Lecture: Leibniz and Voltaire’s Candide
- Two discussions: Leibniz, Port Royal Logic, Candide
- Lecture: Hume and Sterne’s Sentimental Journey
- Two discussions: Leibniz, Hume, Sentimental Journey
- Two discussions: Sentimental Journey , Hume, Wordworth et al., Hartley
- Two discussions: Dostoevsky: Notes from the Underground
- Two discussions: Darwin; Wells: The Island of Doctor Moreau
- One discussion: Wells: The Island of Doctor Moreau
- Lecture: Maxwell’s Demon and Pynchon’s The Crying of Lot 49
- Two discussions: Pynchon: The Crying of Lot 49
- Two discussions: Stoppard: Rosencrantz and Guildenstern are Dead
Prerequisites & course information
Prereq: None U (Fall) 3-0-9 units. HASS-H; CI-H
Sources
- Course catalogue ↗2026–2027
- MIT OpenCourseWare ↗Spring 2008
- MIT OCW readings ↗
- MIT OCW syllabus ↗
- Historical MIT OpenCourseWare offering. Named reading entries and schedule topics are automatically extracted from the linked source pages.