System Design and Management for a Changing World: Tools
Focuses on design choices and decisions under uncertainty. Topics include identification and description of uncertainties using probability distributions; the calculation of commensurate measures of value, such as expected net present values; Monte Carlo simulation and risk analysis; and the use of decision analysis to explore alternative strategies and identify optimal initial choices. Presents applied analysis of practical examples from a variety of engineering systems using spreadsheet and decision analysis software. Class is "flipped" to maximize student engagement and learning. Meets with IDS.332 first half of term.
Fall 2021 · IDS.333 Risk and Decision Analysis
The course addresses a fundamental issue in system design and management, the need for engineering leaders to recognize uncertainty in the performance of their plans or designs. It presents discounted cash flow (DCF) Excel models, simulation, and decision analysis as primary ways to analyze possible outcomes of design and management strategies. It also addresses how we should analyze possible performance outcomes and cope with risks in demand, requirements, cost, technology, etc.
Readings
- David Geltner and Richard de Neufville, Flexibility and Real Estate Valuation under Uncertainty: A Practical Guide for Developers. Wiley-Blackwell, 2018. ISBN: 9781119106487.
Prerequisites & course information
Same subject as EM.423[J] Prereq: None G (Fall; first half of term) 3-0-3 units Credit cannot also be received for 1.146 , 16.861 , EM.422 , IDS.332
Sources
- Course catalogue ↗2026–2027
- MIT OpenCourseWare ↗Fall 2021
- MIT OCW calendar ↗
- MIT OCW syllabus ↗
- Historical MIT OpenCourseWare offering. Named reading entries and schedule topics are automatically extracted from the linked source pages.