IDS.410
Modeling and Assessment for Policy
Explores how scientific information and quantitative models can be used to inform policy decision-making. Develops an understanding of quantitative modeling techniques and their role in the policy process through case studies and interactive activities. Addresses issues such as analysis of scientific assessment processes, uses of integrated assessment models, public perception of quantitative information, methods for dealing with uncertainties, and design choices in building policy-relevant models.
Spring 2013
Topics
- Introduction
- Science Policy Review
- Verification and Validation
- Evaluating Assessments
- Energy Modeling Simulation
- System Modeling
- Class Case 2: Economic Modeling / Model Credibility Exercise
- Class Case 3: Oil Spill / Risk Assessment Part I
- Class Case 4: Clean Air / Risk Assessment Part II
- Benefit-Cost Analysis
- Class Case 5: Sports Statistics / Uncertainty Analysis I
- Uncertainty Analysis II / Model-Building Introduction
- Collaborative Model-Building Exercise
- Interests and Politics: Participatory Methods and Stakeholders
- Class Case 6: Cancer Screening / Lessons Across Cases Discussion
- Policy Memo Roundtable Practice (Optional)
- Policy Memo Roundtable 1
- Policy Memo Roundtable 2
- Synthesis and Wrap-up
Readings
- [Silver] = Silver, Nate. The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail—but Some Don’t . Penguin Press HC, 2012. ISBN: 9781594204111.
- Morgan, M. G. “Technically Focused Policy Analysis.” Chapter 7 in The Science of Science Policy: A Handbook . Edited by Kaye Fealing ed. Stanford Business Books, 2011. ISBN: 9780804770781.
- [Silver] Introduction and Chapter 1.
- Sabatier, Paul A., ed. Theories of the Policy Process . Westview Press, 1999. ISBN: 9780813399850.
- [Silver] Chapter 4.
- Chapter 3: The practice of needs assessment
- Optional: Chapter 1: Introduction and background
- Stokey, Edith, and Richard Zeckhauser. “Linear Programming.” Chapter 11 in A Primer for Policy Analysis . W. W. Norton & Company, 1978. ISBN: 9780393090987.
- [Silver] Chapters 6, and 11.
- Jaemyung Ahn, and Olivier de Weck, “Pilot Study: Assessment of SpaceNet 1.3 with NASA-STD-(I)-7009.” (Cambridge, MA: Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 2007).
- [Silver] Chapter 7.
- Parts I, II, and III in Life Cycle Assessment: What it is and How to Do It? United Nations, 1996. ISBN: 9789280715460.
Prerequisites & course information
Prereq: None G (Spring) Not offered regularly; consult department 3-0-6 units
Sources
- Course catalogue ↗2026–2027
- MIT OpenCourseWare ↗Spring 2013
- MIT OCW calendar ↗
- MIT OCW readings ↗
- MIT OCW syllabus ↗
- Historical MIT OpenCourseWare offering. Named reading entries and schedule topics are automatically extracted from the linked source pages.