Why aren't humans replacing themselves? What are the consequences?

Undergraduate / Graduate

The human fertility rate has fallen in half in the last 50 years, and is below replacement in more and more countries. These declines imply that the human population on Earth will peak at roughly 12 billion around 2075. Will the human population stabilize or collapse after it peaks? Will human civilization survive? This course will examine this Big Question in depth. We will first review the data demonstrating the decline in total fertility rate in countries around the world, then consider the multitude of explanations that have been proposed for this decline. Next, we will explore the consequences for human well-being and civilization of population decline. Finally, we will investigate potential solutions to the problem, with an eye to the underlying causes of fertility decline. Students from a wide variety of fields are welcome, including those with knowledge of partial differential equations, data analysis, or programming skills, but no prior experience in demography or related areas. Students will write a final paper that examines a particular cause of fertility decline and critically evaluates it, providing the best evidence for and against it. This course is cross-listed with the McKeon Center in the UChicago College.