Decision Making Under Uncertainty

Undergraduate / Graduate

This course is a seminar on modeling and other tools to improve decision making under uncertainty. Topics to be covered include expected value, decision trees/probabilistic modeling, forecasting (base rates, cognitive biases, inside/outside views, etc.), decision hygiene, the role of risk/luck/chance, and the resulting fallacy. The focus will be on practical applications of these subjects, with case studies from the instructor's experience in business and public policy including the September 11th Victim Compensation Fund and mass tort & environmental liability estimation. The course format will be lecture and discussion of selected topics, with suggested readings. There will be some preparation required in advance of each class to facilitate class discussion. Open to Harris students only by application.